#18-216

Complete

Date Full Report Received

07/01/2019

Date Abstract Report Received

Investigation

Institution:
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A recently published study (Jurado et al, 2018. Could African swine fever and classical swine fever viruses enter into the United States via swine products carried in air passengers’ luggage? Transbound Emerg Dis. doi: 10.1111/tbed.12996) estimated the risk of introduction of African Swine Fever virus (ASFv) into the US through prohibited swine products carried by air passengers. The study estimated a relatively high risk. In lay terms, the estimates provided by the authors suggest that certainly (cumulative probability = 1) there would be an introduction of ASFv into the US through prohibited swine products carried by air passengers once every 16 years, with a wide 95% confidence interval corresponding to between 5 and 142 years. There were, however, two concerns that emerged from the study, namely, 1) The relative probability seems to be quite high considering the absence of reported ASFv introductions into the US. Does this relative high risk relate to a change in the epidemiological features of the disease worldwide, or have the authors over-estimated the risk?; and 2) Although the study has been published recently (August 2018), since the data were initially analyzed, ASFv has expanded into Western Europe and 11 Chinese provinces, probably, has resulted on a modification of the estimates of risk associated to this pathway of entry. The study here provided an update on the risk associated with the introduction of ASFv into the US through products illegally carried in air passengers luggage.