Pork Profit Maximizer – Retail Edition

Inventories declined 5.6% compared to the previous month compared to an average drawdown of about 3.6% in the last five years. High prices for some products, especially beef and pork, appear to have encouraged users to draw down inventories rather than continue to pay inflated prices in the spot market. Meat protein supplies are expected to continue to expand and the drawdown in inventories should be supportive for prices in late 2018. The total inventory of boneless beef and bone-in beef cuts at the end of October was 515.4 million pounds, 1.6% higher than a year ago and now 8.7% higher than the five year average. Some end users have bolstered inventories in preparation for year-end demand.

Inventories increased by 1.6% in October vs. September compared to a 5-Yr average increase of 1.4%. Inventories of bone-in cuts declined 1.8% in October but still were 5.4% higher than a year ago and 15.6% higher than the five-year average. The total inventory of pork products in cold storage at the end of October was 570.6 million pounds, 3.2% lower than the previous month. In the last five years, the drawdown in pork inventories has been 4.5%. However, current pork inventories are 4.6% lower than a year ago and 1.6% lower than the five-year average. Pork production has increased in the last few weeks but so far there has been good flow from the packing floor to the consumer. Lower inventories remain positive for Feb/Apr hog prices.