Pork Belly Prices Remain Volatile

Pork Profit Maximizer – Foodservice Edition August 19, 2019 The value of the belly primal on Friday was pegged at $169.81/ cwt, $91/cwt or 115% higher than a year ago. The increase in the value of the belly primal has contributed almost $14.4/cwt to the overall cutout (about 74% of the overall cutout increase in […]

Hog futures limit down on Friday even as China pork prices spike

Pork Profit Maximizer – Retail Edition August 19, 2019 The pork cutout had been trending higher in the first two weeks of August but posted a sharp decline on Friday. October futures were down the daily permissible limit on expectations that, in the short term, record pork supplies will drive the cutout even lower in […]

Will Higher Tariffs Derail Pork Prices in Q4 and in 2020?

While there is a lot of uncertainty going forward, and we think China may not buy as much from the US if the tariffs persist, we still expect a significant increase in Chinese pork exports in the second half of the year vs. last year’s levels. This should help support overall pork cutout values. Our […]

Hog Futures Tumb as US-China Trade Conflict Finds Another Gear

The US pork market remains extremely volatile, as participants swing from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism, often in the course of a single month. A recent example: The CME October 2019 lean hog futures contract gained 20% in the two week stretch between July 8 and July 23. The rally reflected more robust cash hog […]

US cow herd and 2019 calf crop post first year over year decline since 2014

Pork Profit Maximizer – Foodservice Edition July 22, 2019 According to the latest USDA semi-annual ‘Cattle Inventory’ report, released Friday, July 19, the total inventory of cattle and calves as of July 1 was estimated to be 103 million head, unchanged from the previous year and very much in agreement with the average of analyst […]

August hog futures jump on weather risk

Pork Profit Maximizer – Retail Edition July 22, 2019 We have raised our forward projections for hog and pork prices given the higher upside risk from weather conditions currently affecting hog producing regions and renewed speculation about export demand from China. We continue to note that the current environment is highly speculative. On the positive […]

Will Pork Demand Be Sufficient to Reduce Record Supplies?

Pork Profit Maximizer – Foodservice Edition July 8, 2019 The total inventory of all hogs and pigs as of June 1 was estimated at 75.026 million head 3.6% higher than a year ago. This comes in higher than the 3% average expected from the pre-report estimates. This is the largest June inventory of all hogs […]

Pork Supplies to Market Much Higher Than Expected in June

Pork Profit Maximizer – Food Service Edition June 24, 2019 The supply of pork coming to market on a weekly basis so far in June has been far higher than anyone could imagine even a month ago. Note that the chart shows a rolling four week moving average. Last week, pork production was up 16.4% […]

Big Increase in Supply Pushes Pork Prices Lower

Pork Profit Maximizer – Retail Edition June 24, 2019 Earlier in the spring futures markets struck a very bullish tone for the US meat complex, largely based on expectations that a meat supply hole in China would present significant competition for domestic end users. The role of futures markets is to look for supply/demand imbalances […]